Nashville mayor runoff analysis: Freddie O'Connell vs. Alice Rolli

And then there were two.

Freddie O’Connell and Alice Rolli emerged from a packed field of a dozen mayoral candidates Thursday, advancing to a final battle at the ballot box in September to become Nashville's next mayor.

Though the race is nonpartisan, O’Connell and Rolli sit firmly at odds on the political spectrum. O’Connell, a progressive candidate supported by local union groups, secured 27% of the vote in the general election. Rolli, a conservative candidate with the endorsement of the Davidson County Republican Party, claimed 20%.

"Tonight we all know the truth: We can win," O'Connell said Thursday to his supporters. "And we can build, together, the Nashville we all want and know is possible. This is our moment ... to make Nashville the place you want to stay. And then can stay. I want you to stay."

Rolli presented herself as a solution for voters "eager for change."

“We now have six weeks to define the direction of our city,” Rolli told her supporters. “Do we want Nashville to build a wall or a bridge? Our city is too great to follow the recipe book that has failed other big cities of higher taxes, higher crimes and failing schools.”

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O'Connell's campaign has highlighted his deep knowledge of Metro government and policy, which stems from his eight years serving as District 19's Metro Council member. Rolli touts her experience as a business leader and educator and her connections to state lawmakers as uniquely qualifying for the mayoral seat.

Rolli’s strategy of crafting her campaign to appeal to conservative voters landed her a runoff seat against a crowded candidate field with votes spread thin among multiple progressive-leaning candidates. A full-county win is a more formidable hurdle.

The number of conservative voters in Davidson County is tricky to pin down, but the 2020 presidential race provides a benchmark: Trump won 32.4% of the vote.

September’s race is reminiscent of 2015, when Megan Barry and conservative-leaning David Fox (now Rolli's campaign manager) advanced — separated by less than one percentage point — to a runoff from a seven-candidate field. Barry ultimately secured the seat, claiming nearly 55% of the vote.

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Rolli has repeatedly said Nashville needs to grow its police force, while O’Connell has proposed more progressive ideas that he says would reduce the burden on Nashville’s police.

Rolli identified improving public safety and reducing crime as one of her top priorities as mayor, at one point distributing mailers advocating for a stronger police force featuring crime-focused headlines and a photoshopped image of the Metro Nashville Courthouse on fire. She said change also needs to occur at the district attorney’s office because “we cannot continue on this catch and release path indefinitely."

O’Connell's campaign site states that the “safest cities are not the ones with the most prisons, police or guns, or the harshest policies,” but the ones with “the most hope, the best schools and the most equitable economic opportunities.” He says other departments should be engaged so police don’t have to respond to things like noise complaints and parking violations.

The candidates also have different views on license plate readers. Rolli supports them "as a practical way to expand our police force, which is stretched thin, and to support our detectives in the work of apprehending individuals suspected or convicted of crime." She added that data disposal after a "reasonable" time period is necessary.

O’Connell said he errs in favor of privacy in matters of mass surveillance, but he wants Nashville to take "crime and crime fighting tools seriously." He stresses the need for accountability and wants to do further analysis.

When it comes to the city's public schools, the two candidates differ widely.

For starters, O'Connell thinks the school board should continue to be elected. Rolli would bring the board under the mayor's control.

O'Connell thinks the Tennessee legislature is attacking education in Nashville through state charter school approval, vouchers and underfunding. Rolli supports charter schools and vouchers as tools to improve outcomes.

"We've got to have the dollars follow the kid, and we've got to honor the choice of parents," she said.

O'Connell would improve things by expanding after-care access in public schools and instituting later high school start times.

Rolli has regularly, emphatically declared that she will not raise taxes, while O'Connell has not said much on the topic one way or the other. Mayor John Cooper oversaw a 34% property tax raise in 2020 under a looming takeover threat by the state comptroller.

The two do agree on finding dedicated funding for transit.

"This is our biggest missing ingredient for the success of this city and you can count on me to lead the effort to get it done in my first term," O'Connell has said.

Rolli said she would also aim to hold a transit referendum in the next few years.

O'Connell was the first to launch his campaign in April 2022, hoping to use the extra time to raise enough money to be competitive in the race without being able to contribute personal loans. He's received donations from a handful of political action committees spanning business interests to union groups, including the Waller Lansden PAC, A Better Tomorrow, a group backed by real estate investment firm Southwest Value Partners, and the Tennessee Laborers' PAC.

His financial disclosures show support from local haunts like The Johnny Cash Museum and Nudie's Honky Tonk, and prominent names in Nashville's business community: Nashville SC owner John Ingram, Lisa Giarratana (wife of developer Anthony Giarratana), former Ryman Hospitality CEO Colin Reed and William Freeman of Freeman Webb. Megan Barry also contributed to his campaign.

As of July 24, Rolli reported nearly $146,000 in personal outstanding loans. Her campaign coffers show contributions from several Republican Tennessee lawmakers, including Rep. Jake McCalmon (R-Franklin), Sen. Frank Niceley (R-Strawberry Plains), and several political action committees connected to state officials, including senators Shane Reeves, Ken Yager, Mark Pody, Richard Briggs and Sen. Majority Leader Jack Johnson (R-Franklin).

Other Rolli backers include Tina and Mike Hodges (of payday lending company Advance Financial and sports betting company Action 24/7), Lee Ann Ingram, David Ingram, Cumberland Oil President Richard Cummins Jr., CoreCivic executive Anthony Grande, executives from HCA and Vanderbilt University Medical Center and Williamson County Mayor Rogers Anderson.

Separate from her campaign, the Save Nashville PAC has purchased tens of thousands of dollars of television ad time touting Rolli as a leader who will "protect Nashville" from becoming a "failing city."

Liz Schubauer contributed.